Long WIP One - Modi's Project Canada and What It Means

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India is betting $18 billion to build a chip powerhouse

My take - focus on what lessons you'll learn as you go along. It's an experiment, but it can be less expensive if you achieve tiny goals every day instead of that one BHAG. Tips on where to start? Try Bent Flyvberg. (Hint: If it's not roads or fossil-fuel power-generation, be afraid, very afraid)

Will they succeed? No. Why? It's for reasons similar to why Mexicans are still Mexicans in spite of their proximity to America. The Mexican is not an American. Likewise, the Indian is not a Chinese or a Taiwanese. There are things that some Chinese people can do that no Indians can (yet) do, or think are important to do. Does that make them inferior in some way? Certainly not. They could do these things if they put their minds to it, but a culture that has deemed such skills respectable, for generations, has an advantage. The problem isn't that Indians "can't" (yet). It's that Indians don't think these things are important. After all, did you ever hear of any such thing as an "Indian puzzle"? OK. Given that, isn't it reasonable to assume that China and Taiwan will produce more people who are capable of the self-sacrifice and concentration necessary to make such things happen?

Another problem is the diversity challenge. Indians aren't "one people" the way Taiwanese and Koreans and Japanese are. I left out the Chinese because I've had other nationalities tell me that China looks ethnically homogenous from the outside, but it actually isn't. That being said, there is plenty of nationalism and patriotism to go around within China to make this happen there. The Koreans see themselves as perpetually with their backs to the wall, and that drives them to win at all costs - and those costs, if you're looked them (personal sacrifice) are high. So, in short, Indian mores, and the unwillingness to learn and adopt the mores of more successful cultures can, by themselves, keep this one from happening.

Plus, think about why Japan isn't able to pull off a TSMC? You think they don't want to?

So, what SHOULD India do? Simple, do the Dalio - (from Ray Dalio's "Principles") - tell people what you believe and (therefore) what your plan of action is and ask people to critique it. Tell us where you're spending this money which you don't have and let us tell you what we believe the stupidest expense is likely to be. What else? Think about an internal customer and an MVP. Allow ISRO to drive this. ISRO has achieved some success of note. If you let people who contributed to that success move into leadership roles in this new effort, that will attract higher quality people into both pipelines.

So, what, then, is "Project Canada"? It's a hypothetical acceptance that India can never catch up to China, and should be content with a role similar to what Canada plays, in relation to the USA. Who is bigger and stronger? Does Canada need to worry? No. Accept it, move on, live in peace.

You step into Singapore and you realize, when you interact with them, that you are talking to a different type of person. It's the legacy of Lee Kuan Yew. What did Nehru or any of the others tell Indians to "be"? Anything come to mind?

The red flags are: no mention of an MVP. Has any milestone been identified to know if they are "on track" (on track to what? If Intel and the USA can't make anything of TSMC's quality, how can India?). No mention of what India is really known for - chaos - if this initiative fails, can it at least lead to better roads because better roads are necessary to make this happen? Or, can they think of some way that air transport coupled with drones for the last mile (think Rwanda) can facilitate this? Have you heard mention of even a single date? "We're going to spend $18b" Really? To get what? By when?

Is there anything at all they can do? Maybe. Start with what the disposable income of the largest low-income population is. Now, what can they buy from you that will add value to their lives. Is there something this new initiative can produce that is not worth the while of the other manufacturers? If there had been some talk of how this scheme was going to allow hundreds of millions of people to chip in productively and boost their purchasing power and intellectual ability, I might have at least perked up a bit more.

TBC, for sure!